Unders in 8 of the Sky’s last 10: the Sky’s own scoring is the bigger part

The read

The Chicago Sky’s last 10 completed games with a line in the source record went under the total 8 times. The misses were not marginal: the games averaged 171.2 points against an average total of 178.7, and four of them landed 10 or more points under. The source of the gap matters for whether it lasts: the Sky averaged 82.5 points in those games, 4.2 points below their season average of 86.7, while their opponents averaged 88.7, 1 point below the 89.7 they allow on the season. Most of the under run is the Sky’s own offense falling short.

The evidence

Has the total caught up? The average total on the five older games was 180.5; on the five most recent it was 176.9. The market consensus total for the Sky’s next game, WSH at CHI on Sep 17, is 167.5 in PropBetEdge’s capture of Sep 12 (9 books) — 11.2 below the run’s average total. Not all of that is an adjustment to the Sky: the Mystics score 82.8 a game and their last 10 games averaged 170 total points, so the opponent pulls the number down on its own. How much of the Sky’s run is left in the price is the open question.

The exceptions: August 23 against the Fever, 203 points against a total of 187.5; August 10 at the Storm, 185 points against a total of 179.5.

Game by game: Aug 29 at NY 66–85 (151 points, total 181.5); Aug 25 at CON 81–87 (168 points, total 171.5); Aug 23 vs IND 90–113 (203 points, total 187.5); Aug 21 vs GS 73–70 (143 points, total 163.5); Aug 18 vs NY 93–86 (179 points, total 180.5); Aug 16 at SEA 82–80 (162 points, total 177.5); Aug 12 at GS 71–91 (162 points, total 166.5); Aug 10 at SEA 88–97 (185 points, total 179.5); Aug 8 vs IND 86–90 (176 points, total 191.5); Aug 5 vs LA 95–88 (183 points, total 187.5).

For the record, the same games went 4-6 against the spread.

The counter-case

The case against the run: 10 games against one sportsbook’s totals is a small sample, and two of them went over, one by 15.5. Totals are set against both teams, so the next opponent changes the baseline.