The Valkyries are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10: the lines have undersold them by 7.3 a game

The read

Over their last 10 completed games with a line in the source record, the Golden State Valkyries went 7-3 against the spread. On average they were 4-point favorites and finished at +11.3 — 7.3 points a game better than the spread. Six of the 10 covers came by 10 or more.

The evidence

Has the spread caught up? The average spread on the five older games was -4.1; on the five most recent it was -3.9. The market consensus for their next game, POR at GS on Sep 18, has them at -12.5 (PropBetEdge capture, Sep 12, 8 books).

Game by game: Aug 30 at POR 86–69 (-6.5, covered); Aug 27 at NY 79–60 (+3.5, covered); Aug 26 at CON 89–64 (-14.5, covered); Aug 24 at MIN 80–66 (+4.5, covered); Aug 21 at CHI 70–73 (-6.5, failed to cover); Aug 19 vs MIN 66–77 (+1.5, failed to cover); Aug 17 vs DAL 78–70 (-5.5, covered); Aug 12 vs CHI 91–71 (-8.5, covered); Aug 9 at LA 84–78 (-6.5, failed to cover); Aug 7 at DAL 94–76 (-1.5, covered).

For the record, totals in the same games went 2-8.

The counter-case

The case against the run: 10 games against one sportsbook’s spreads is a small sample, and a market that has already adjusted leaves nothing of the run in the next spread.